Uma Análise do Mercado e do Preço Competitivo de Gás Natural em São Paulo / An Analysis of Market and Competitive Pricing of Natural Gas in São Paulo
AUTOR(ES)
Ieda Correia Gomes
FONTE
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO
06/11/1996
RESUMO
The development of the natural gas industry in Brazil has been emphatically discussed since the mid-Eighties, when representatives of several Brazilian States willing to diversify their energy share and supply the market with a clean source of energy, met in Brasil\ s capital, sponsored by the former National Energy Commission and prepared the first long term gas consumption forecasts. Since then, the Brazilian gas sector has shown an enhanced growth, helped by the establishment of new local distribution concessionnaires and also by an increase in gas consumption in the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Bahia and Rio de Janeiro. After the signature of a rst memorandum of understanding between Petrobrás and Yacimientos Fiscales Bolivianos - YPFB in 1992, the perspective of importing gas from Bolivia produced a long negotiation process involving the Brazilian oil company and the seven state concessionaires: Comgas(SP), CEG(R.J), Gasmig(MG), Compagás{PR), Enersul(MS), SC Gás(SC) and Sulgás (RS); the goal was to sign a 20 years gas supply agreement. The main constraint refer to the maximum affordable city gate price for which the gas will remain competitive after adding the distribution margin. It has been very difcult to match the city gate price imposed by Petrobrás, that has not been settled according to economical criteria and shall be equalized in all city gates - from the close to the border Corumbá up to the far Porto Alegre - with a consumer\ s gate price which can be considered competitive to the high sulphur content fuel oil consumed in most factories in the Southern and Southeastern regions. This dissertation aims at estimating the competitive price to natural in the state of São Paulo, both at city gate and consumer\ s gate as well as the economical demand to be contracted by Comgás, the current São Paulo gas distribution concessionaire, according to a set of prices variation. Taking into account the wide quantity of market studies developed in São Paulo for more than 10 years, and the variety of data presented, this dissertation will also present an abstract of their most important results in such a way to make available for those interested in the gas sector in São Paulo a piece of history of this fascinating industry, in which the author has being participating for the last 18 years. It should also be emphasized that one has looked for making the estimates and preparing the simulations in a very impartial manner. Nevertheless one shall take into account that this work carries a viewpoint of the gas distribution sector and also of the market; sometimes it may show some vehement statements about the pace of gas development in the country and also about the often.
