Regimes cambiais em paises emergentes : a experiencia brasileira recente (1994-2006) / Exchange rate regimes in emerging countries : brazilian recent experience (1994-2006)

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

The deep changes verified at the international economy since the end of the Bretton Woods system created an ambience of a bigger complexity in which the opportunities opened to the countries that get into the financial globalization logic usually come with some dangers. The emergence of the euromarket, the development of direct finances and the financial liberalization increased capital mobility and its potential of valorization, but, simultaneously, the latent risks were also augmented, mainly because of the systemic instability that characterizes this phase of capitalist development. This framework engenders a great volatility of the main macroeconomic variables in the peripheral countries considered as emerging countries ? i.e., the ones that have in someway made their integration into the financial globalization. This scenario is due to the fact that the capital flows addressed to these countries are much more unstable than those of the central countries. The variables that compose the balance of payments seem to be progressively subordinated to the mobility of the international capital. If some decades ago the issue of the exchange rate stability was an attribute of the modus operandi of the international monetary system, now it is an issue to be dealt with by each country on its own. This dissertation aims to analyze the conditioning of the choice of exchange rate regimes in emerging countries in the context of financial globalization and the economic results promoted by these different regimes. The central hypothesis is that emerging countries face some difficulties on the management of their exchange rates ? mainly in this scenario of global finances ? that use to be neglected by most of the authors. Moreover, this dissertation analyze and discuss, from a critical point of view, the exchange rate regimes adopted in Brazil since the implementation of the Real Plan. Brazilian recent experience is interesting, because it allows observing different ways of dealing with the exchange rate, bringing light over the difficulties faced by emerging countries on the conduction of exchange rate policy. This work makes a discussion of the Real Plan and the nominal anchor practiced during the first mandate of president Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Following, an analysis of the floating exchange rate regime and the so-called ?tripod? model of macroeconomic policy, adopted since 1999 is presented. Finally, the focus is put over the evolution of the exchange rate management on the first Lula Government and its implications over the growing pattern of Brazilian economy

ASSUNTO(S)

globalization exchange rates globalização - aspectos economicos politica economica cambio economic policy

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