Risk analysis and probability of return on invested capital in an intensive beef cattle production system in Minas Gerais, Brazil

ABSTRACT The study evaluated the average return on invested capital (ROIC) in function of the variations in the historical prices of beef cattle and the odds of return on that capital gain within the system of beef cattle fattening on a farm in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2004 to 2007. To calculate the risk of ROIC, monthly data of beef cattle prices (BM&F) were used from July 1997 to December 2013, revised by the General Price Index of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas in December 2013. The corrected data were divided into five classes that correspond to the risk scenarios. In light ...