Multivariate Garch Models
Mostrando 1-12 de 12 artigos, teses e dissertações.
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1. O efeito contágio da crise do subprime no mercado acionário brasileiro / The contagion effect of subprime crisis on Brazilian stock market
A crescente integração e globalização das finanças, que possibilitaram o aumento da liquidez da economia internacional, foram acompanhadas por cenários instáveis gerados pelas crises financeiras. Estas crises, por sua vez, foram transmitidas, principalmente, para economias emergentes, caracterizadas pela maior fragilidade frente aos movimentos de aver
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 07/02/2012
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2. Redes Bayesianas: um método para avaliação de interdependência e contágio em séries temporais multivariadas / Bayesian Networks: a method for evaluation of interdependence and contagion in multivariate time series
This work aims to identify the existence of financial contagion using a metodology of Bayesian networks. Besides Bayesian networks, the analysis of the international marketsinterdependence in times of financial crises, occurred between 1996 and 2009, was modeled using two other techniques - multivariate GARCH models and Copulas models, involving countries in
Publicado em: 2011
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3. Modelos univariados e multivariados para cálculo do Valor-em-Risco de um portifólio / Multivariate and Univariate Models for Forecasting a Portfolios Value-at-Risk
The present work consists of a comparative study of several portfolio Value-at-Risk models. Univariate models, which consider only the portfolio log-returns series, are compared to multivariate models, which consider the log-returns series of each asset individually and their conditional correlations. Additionally, recently proposed models such as PS-GARCH a
Publicado em: 2010
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4. Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals
This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a se
Publicado em: 26/01/2009
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5. Transmission of prices and volatility in the marketing of pork / Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína
The pork chain, despite showing significant technical improvement and competitiveness, is still one of the most volatile sectors of Brazilian agribusiness, and marketing and price fluctuation is one of the main barriers for its development. Accordingly, the present study aimed to analyze the price ratios and volatility among production agents and major meat
Publicado em: 2009
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6. THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF CONSTANT AND DYNAMIC CONDITIONAL CORRELATION MODEL / O VALOR ECONÔMICO DOS MODELOS DE CORRELAÇÃO CONDICIONAL CONSTANTE E DINÂMICA
At Fleming, Kirby e Ostdiek (2001), evidences are found that volatility timming models, have signicant economic value when comparing with the simple unconditional variance matrix, in a framework of portfolio optimization. Going further, this work analyze if the more complex Constant (CCC) and Dynamic (DCC) Conditional Corrrelation models, suggested respectiv
Publicado em: 2007
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7. HIGH FREQUENCY DATA AND PRICE-MAKING PROCESS ANALYSIS: THE EXPONENTIAL MULTIVARIATE AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL MODEL - EMACM / ANÁLISE DE DADOS DE ALTA FREQÜÊNCIA E DO PROCESSO DE FORMAÇÃO DE PREÇOS: O MODELO MULTIVARIADO EXPONENCIAL - EMACM
The availability of high frequency financial transaction data - price, spread, volume and duration -has contributed to the growing number of scientific articles on this topic. The first proposals were limited to pure duration models. Later, the impact of duration over instantaneous volatility was analyzed. More recently, Manganelli (2002) included volume int
Publicado em: 2006
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8. The impact of the sugar markets and American oil in the volatileness of the Brazilian sugar / O impacto dos mercados de açúcar e petróleo americano na volatilidade do açúcar brasileiro
The alcohol fuel became a real and viable alternative to the growing petroleum prices in the global economy. However the production of this kind of fuel requires a great amount of sugar cane, of which Brazil is the major world-wide producer. There are two major outcomes of sugar cane: alcohol fuel and sugar. Whereas the alcohol fuel is a clear substitute to
Publicado em: 2006
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9. Contagio em mercados financeiros emergentes / Emerging financial markets contagion
The issue of contagion has been one of the most debated in the international finance literature in the last years. Although there is no general agreement regarding the definition of contagion, it is known that this issue is related to the fact that crisis started in one country tend to propagate to other countries. Therefore, a measure used as an indication
Publicado em: 2006
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10. DISTRIBUTIONS OF RETURNS, VOLATILITIES AND CORRELATIONS IN THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET / DISTRIBUIÇÕES DE RETORNOS, VOLATILIDADES E CORRELAÇÕES NO MERCADO ACIONÁRIO BRASILEIRO
The normality assumption is commonly used in the risk management area to describe the distributions of returns standardized by volatilities. However, using five of the most actively traded stocks in Bovespa, this paper shows that this assumption is not compatible with volatilities estimated by EWMA or GARCH models. In sharp contrast, when we use the informat
Publicado em: 2004
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11. Essays on efficiency, cointegration, common factors, nonlinearities in the variance in the financial markets: A study about interest rate term structure and the volatility of sovereign bonds. / Ensaios sobre eficiência, cointegração, componentes comuns, não linearidades na variância nos mercados financeiros: um estudo da estrutura a termo das taxas de juros e da volatilidade de títulos da dívida soberana.
The thesis is composed by two empirical studies. In the first its analyzed the proprieties of the interest rate term structure and, in particular, its investigated whether or not the expectation hypothesis is a good description of Brazilian and American data. The results are better for American data. In the second study its investigated the sovereign d
Publicado em: 2004
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12. BAYESIAN INFERENCE ON MULTIVARIATE ARCH MODELS / MODELAGEM BAYESIANA MCMC PARA UM PROCESSO ARCH MULTIVARIADO / MODELOS BAYESIANOS MCMC PARA UN PROCESO ARCH MULTIVARIADO
The objective of this work is to develop Metropolis-Hasting for strategy Bayesian Inference, based on a Multivariate ARCH model with BEKK representation. In complex problems, such as the multivariate generalization of ARCH/GARCH structures, the inference process in complicated, due to the large number of parameters involved and to the restrictions they must
Publicado em: 2001