Financial Forecasting
Mostrando 1-12 de 23 artigos, teses e dissertações.
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1. APPLYING SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS AND ARIMA-GARCH FOR FORECASTING EUR/USD EXCHANGE RATE
RESUMO Objetivo: O objetivo deste artigo foi modelar a série de minuto das taxas de câmbio do par EUR/USD por meio dos métodos singular spectrum analysis (SSA) e ARIMA-GARCH, e avaliar qual gera previsões melhores para um horizonte de cinco minutos. Originalidade/valor: Apesar de o SSA se mostrar uma técnica bem-sucedida em outros ramos da ciência, s
RAM, Rev. Adm. Mackenzie. Publicado em: 12/08/2019
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2. Using Common Features to Understand the Behavior of Metal-Commodity Prices and Forecast them at Different Horizons
The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relative
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV. Publicado em: 03/01/2013
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3. A Common-Feature Approach for Testing Present-Value Restrictions with Financial Data
It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (labeled Yt and yt in this paper) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PV and PVM, respectively, hereafter) linking them. The work on cointegration has been so prevalent that it is often overlooked that another necessary condition for the PVM
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV. Publicado em: 24/02/2012
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4. O impacto da janela de Hurst na previsão de séries temporais financeiras / The impact of Hursts window on the preview of financial time series
Sabe-se que, na literatura, existem muitos modelos para se fazer previsão para séries temporais financeiras. Sabe-se também que não há um modelo perfeito e que os mais utilizados atualmente são os modelos de redes neurais recorrentes e os da família GARCH. Referências internacionais apontam que existe uma técnica de medição de uma janela temporal
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 31/10/2011
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5. Análise e proposta de melhoria do processo de previsão de demanda em uma pequena empresa do setor de cosméticos
Nowadays, even small-sized enterprises are investing in integrated management systems, called ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning), as a way to solve planning problems and to better control their cash flow. However, these enterprises end up neglecting one of the main inputs to improve the PPC (Production Planning and Control): the demand forecast. Thus, planni
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 06/07/2011
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6. Funds investing in stocks in Brazil: Performance and size make a difference? / Fundos de investimento em aÃÃes no Brasil: Performance e tamanho fazem diferenÃa?
This article aims to contribute to the mainstream in Asset Pricing Theory, proposing and testing empirically, with pricing exercises and in-sample forecasting, a multifactor linear approach, such that, it is possible to account for the main empirical evidences in a promising Brazilian financial market: stock mutual funds. Following the methodology developed
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 11/06/2010
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7. Modelos univariados e multivariados para cálculo do Valor-em-Risco de um portifólio / Multivariate and Univariate Models for Forecasting a Portfolios Value-at-Risk
The present work consists of a comparative study of several portfolio Value-at-Risk models. Univariate models, which consider only the portfolio log-returns series, are compared to multivariate models, which consider the log-returns series of each asset individually and their conditional correlations. Additionally, recently proposed models such as PS-GARCH a
Publicado em: 2010
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8. Modelos de séries temporais com coeficientes variando no tempo
In this work they are presented extensions of Auto Regressive and Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models with coefficients varying in time. These coefficients have been used as models for non stationary real time series, specially for financial series. The objective of this work is to present the models and the techniques involved in estimatin
Publicado em: 2009
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9. ESTIMATION OF PETROLEUM FUTURE CONTRACTS USING THE KALMAN FILTER METHOD / ESTIMATIVA DE PREÇOS DE CONTRATOS FUTUROS SOBRE PETRÓLEO UTILIZANDO O MÉTODO DO FILTRO DE KALMAN
The Future Market is becoming increasingly important in the global scenario of Corporate Finance. The main interest in this segment of finance is the need of being protected against the volatility of financial markets. Accordingly, one of the most traded commodity is oil. Because of difficulty in determine the value of future contracts on oil barrel, many mo
Publicado em: 2009
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10. Proposta de um modelo de planejamento agregado da produção numa usina de açúcar e álcool vinculado à flutuação de preços em mercados à vista e no mercado futuro. / A model of aggregate production planning in a sugar mill and alcohol linked the decisions of prices in future markets and present markets.
The objective of study this dissertation is to develop a model of aggregate production planning to support the decisions of management and board level of sugar and alcohol plants in regard to varieties of cane harvested each week, purchasing cane of nonsugar, the type of transport (own or outsourced) to use each week, the total cane processed per week for ta
Publicado em: 2009
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11. Accounting earnings properties and determinants of earnings response coefficient in Brazil / Propriedades do lucro contábil e determinantes do coeficiente de resposta ao lucro no Brasil
A fundamental issue at the interface of economics, finance, and accounting involves the relation between a firms reported earnings and its stock returns. The lack of research in this field using Brazilian data and the limitations of previous research in terms of time-series data (small length available) motivates the present research. In addition, the practi
Publicado em: 2009
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12. MEAN AND REALIZED VOLATILITY SMOOTH TRANSITION MODELS APPLIED TO RETURN FORECASTING AND AUTOMATIC TRADING / MODELOS DE TRANSIÇÃO SUAVE PARA MÉDIA E VOLATILIDADE REALIZADA APLICADOS À PREVISÃO DE RETORNOS E NEGOCIAÇÃO AUTOMÁTICA
The main goal of this dissertation is to compare the performance of linear and nonlinear models to forecast 23 assets of the American Stocks Market. The Heteroscedastic STAR-Tree Model is proposed using the STAR- Tree (Smooth Transition AutoRegression Tree) methodology applied to heteroscedastic time series. As assets returns and realized volatility intraday
Publicado em: 2008