The economic impact of potential avian flu outbreaks in Brazil: a general equilibrium model analysis / Avaliação do impacto econômico de possíveis surtos da gripe aviária no Brasil: uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

In the past few years, the bird flue virus H5N1 spread rapidly through various countries and continents, causing great economic and human losses. There is also the possibility of the disease arriving in Brazil, which would have a substantial impact on the countrys economy, particularly on its poultry sector. The present study addresses the lack of estimates of the potential economic consequences of a bird flu outbreak on commercial poultry production in Brazil. The analysis consists of three simulations using a interregional general equilibrium model called TERM-BR. The first scenario focuses on an outbreak in the state of Rio Grande do Norte in the Northeastern part of the country. The second scenario simulates an outbreak at various places in the State of Sao Paulo, and the third scenario assesses the consequences of a bird flue outbreak in various states simultaneously, Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia, São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul. The results indicate greater economic impact when the outbreak occurs close to points of production and consumption, which is the case in the Southern and Southeastern regions of Brazil. In the South, where the poultry sector constitutes a larger share of the local economy, a potential avian flu outbreak will also have a greater negative economic impact. In the Northern and Northeastern region, live birds are generally purchased and slaughtered directly by individual families living in suburban and small town settings rather then by large scale processors and packinghouses. This characteristic explains why potential restrictions on these small purchases of live birds will have a very large negative economic impact on the poultry sector in the affected states. A possible reduction in poultry supply could however be offset by an increase in beef and pork consumption, thereby softening the economic affect of a bird flue outbreak by promoting growth of the beef and pork industry. In most states, this fall of domestic poultry demand is the primary cause for a shift in production. In contrast, the fall in export demand only weighs heavily on the local economy when the outbreak occurs close to exporting regions. In the state of Santa Catarina, for example, the effect of a fall in export demand dominates the effect of a fall in domestic demand, as export markets are almost completely shutdown. Finally, the reduction in poultry supply through death of infected birds and destruction of eggs, has little affect on the decrease of poultry production.

ASSUNTO(S)

avian influenza economic impact avicultura general equilibrium models. influenza. impacto econômico

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