Quantificação do impacto de incertezas e analise de risco no desenvolvimento de campos de petroleo

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2003

RESUMO

Decision analysis applied to the development phase of petroleum field must take into account the risk associated to several types of uncertainties. In the transition of the appraisal to the development phase, the importance ofrisk associated to the recovery factor may increase significantly. The process is complex due to (I) high investments (2) large number ofuncertain variables (3) strong dependence ofthe results with the production strategy definition. This complexity may, in several cases, cause difficulties to establish reliable techniques to assess risk correctly or it demands great computational effort. Therefore, methodologies to quantify the impact of uncertainties are still not well established because simplifications are necessary and the impact of such simplifications is not well known. Therefore, the objective of this work is to define a methodology based on a detailed study of the risk analysis applied to the development phase using simplifications techniques to speed up the process without significant loss of precision, with emphasis to: treatment of attributes, gradual combination, aggregation of attributes, use of representative models to integra te different type of uncertainties and production strategy definition. This study has the objective to make decision process more reliability, showing the critical points of the process and quantifying the simplifications that can be assumed in order to make the process standard and easy to be applied. The results of two selected examples show that the criteria adopted are good indicators of the viability ofthe methodology, improving the performance and reliability ofthe risk analysis processes.

ASSUNTO(S)

metodos de simulação numerical simulation risk analysis poços de petroleo uncertainties engenharia de simulação

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