MODELO PARA PREVISÃO DA TEMPERATURA DE CONDUTORES DE LINHAS AÉREAS DE TRANSMISSÃO / MODEL FOR TRANSMISSION LINE CONDUCTORS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2002

RESUMO

Transmission lines have a fundamental role in the electric system performance,connecting power sources to load centers. When the transmission system attains it`s transmission capability limit, the system must be expanded, either constructing new lines, or upgrading existing ones. Among the factors that can limit a transmission line transfer capability is the operating temperature limit, established for both economic and safety reasons. Due to its geographic extension the construction of a transmission line involves a big economic as well as environmental cost. For this reasons the upgrade of existing lines, in the sense of increasing it`s transmission capability, has become a priority to electric utilities and a main option for system expansion. In this work the problem of transmission line conductors` operational temperature is analised and the methodology presently used to establish it`s operational limit is described. Two models to forecast transmission line conductors` temperature are developped:a complete model which uses forecasts of the relevant metheorological variables,and a direct model using univariate methods on temperature series. In the development of forecasting models, linear stochastic methods such as exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins, as well as Artificial Neural Networks techniques were used.Finally model validation is presented, showing very good performance of the proposed forecasting models, and some potential applications are suggested.

ASSUNTO(S)

temperatura transmission lines linhas de transmissao cabos condutores previsao temperature conductors forecasting

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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