Modelo de decisÃo multicritÃrio para avaliaÃÃo de riscos em instalaÃÃes de exploraÃÃo de petrÃleo e gÃs

AUTOR(ES)

Adiel Teixeira de Almeida Filho

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

In this work is developed a framework for risk analysis and evaluation toward structuring and modeling decision problems with multiple objectives. Traditional approaches to analyze and evaluate risks are identified, to which is proposed the use of utility theory to allow quantifying and measuring these risks into different risk dimensions. Thus is proposed a model for evaluate the implementation of risk reduction projects, which are evaluated under a perspective of human judgment of value which aggregates objectives regarding to this context. To illustrate the use and the advantages of this approach is presented an application in the context of an offshore platform problem, considering a previous study of hazards identification and analysis found on the literature. From this previous study a decision problem is contextualized and solved regarding which risk reduction projects should be implemented in the platform. Financial factors are also considered, leading to a conflict situation under the perspective of risk reduction and costs of the investment in the project. At the end is presented an analysis of the obtained results and are discussed the advantages of using this framework

ASSUNTO(S)

multicriteria modeling anÃlise e avaliaÃÃo de riscos teoria da utilidade utility theory risk analysis and evaluation decision under risk decisÃo sob riscos engenharia de producao modelagem multicritÃrio

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