Modelagem da evolução da resistência de pragas a toxinas Bt expressas em culturas transgênicas: quantificação de risco utilizando análise de incertezas. / Modeling pest resistance evolution to bt toxins expressed by transgenic crops: risk assessment using uncertainty analisys.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2003

RESUMO

One of the main risks associated to transgenic crops expressing Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins is the pest resistance evolution, process driven by genetic and ecological inter related factors. A key parameter that influences the rate of resistance evolution is the initial frequency of the resistance allele in the pest population (FreqInicial). Due to complexity of that process, large scale field experiments to investigate resistance evolution are practically impossible. Mathematical simulation models have been utilized to estimate the R allele frequency (FreqR) along pest generations. The resistance risk was estimated using the deterministic Caprio’s model, incorporating uncertainty to FreqInicial. That approach, called uncertainty analysis, allows to estimate resistance risk along generations. The risk is quantified by the probability of FreqR exceeding a critical value. The main objectives of this work were: (i) to discuss the use of uncertainty analysis in the context of risk resistance estimation and (ii) to evaluate the effect of different FreqInicial input probability distributions on the risk estimates. A software (RRiskBt) was developed in Visual BASIC language to quantify risk of pest resistance evolution to Bt toxins using uncertainty analysis. The results of uncertainty analysis showed that the influence of FreqInicial input distributions on the risk estimates changes along pest generations. The risk estimates considering input Normal distribution for FreqInicial are similar to those ones obtained considering Triangular distribution if their variances are equal. The use of Uniform distribution instead the Normal or Triangular due to lack of information about FreqInicial, leads to super estimation of risk estimates for the initial generations and sub estimation for the generations after the generation for which the critical frequency is achieved. The sensitivity analysis of FreqR to FreqInicial or DFRes allows to estimate the generation after which the FreqR estimates become independent of changes in the particular parameter. The uncertainty analysis allows to estimate the pest generation after which the resistance risk is higher than 0.99, independently of the FreqInicial input distribution.

ASSUNTO(S)

entomopathogenic bactéria pragas agrícolas biological control transgenic plants plantas produtoras de pesticidas plantas transgênicas agricultural pests plant genetic resistance. controle biológico pest-protected plants bactéria entomopatogênica resistência genética vegetal.

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