Model "Export-led growth" : empirical evidence in a non-linear perspective / Modelo export-led growth: evidências empíricas em uma perspectiva não linear

AUTOR(ES)

João Paulo Martin Faleiros

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

The aim of this thesis is to evaluate Export-Led Growth hypothesis through MR-STVAR. If its model is assumed, the pattern of growth alternates among four distinct regimes. Each of them is characterized by the combination of high and low rates of output and export growth. To verify if the value of export quarterly growth increases the forecasting capabilities of output quarterly growth, it is applied a Granger causality test. Hence, this approach contributes to the analysis of traditional literature that supposes a linear view of development. The traditional literature, in general, verify ELG hypothesis using a Granger causality test in a linear framework. The MR-STVAR was applied to seven countries, United States, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, furthermore, Hong Kong, special administrative region of the Peoples Republic of China.

ASSUNTO(S)

economic development economia economy econometrics econometria desenvolvimento econômico

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