Metodos de previsão da demanda mineral

AUTOR(ES)

Saul B. Suslick

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

1990

RESUMO

A variety of conceptual and methodological issues as well as data problems are encountered in forecasting metal demand. How these obstacles are handled can significantly affect the final results. The intensity of use of a mineral defined as the consumption of the mineral divided by gross domestic product are commonly used for demand projections. The purpose of this research is showing a framework of the principal methods for long-range forecasting of mineral demand. The technique of intensity of use were used as demand modeling methodology as well as agregate by complex methods for captured other economic variables such as technological change and material substitution.This research also include some discussion about the limitations of the original theory proposed by MALENBAUM. The analysis demonstrates that technological change and material substitution have decidedly been the predominate factors in reducing the intensity of use of several commodities in most industrialized countries. These results suggest that the intensity of use as originally proposed failed by not incorporated these variables as well as some statistical techniques for consistency analysis. Data on aluminum consumption in Brazil on the observed period (1950-1987) were studied to determine the performance of each methods. Models were compared by expost results on a test period (1981-1987) and forecasting aluminum consumption in the year 2000.The choice of aluminum are due to a huge amount of bauxite, a great effort by brazilian government in creating large aluminum supply in the last two decades and the data availability.Other major finding of this research is that learning model and factor model (factor scores and time varying coefficients) were very useful in long-range forecasting by incorporate several ariables such as own price, substitute prices, technical change and others in the dynamics of mineral demand. An evaluation procedure was used to estimate the behavior of each method in relation to different criteria: accuracy, cost, degree of complexity, technological change and requirements (manipulation, utilization by people not acquainted with quantitative techniques)

ASSUNTO(S)

tecnologia minas e recursos minerais industria mineral

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