Land prices evolution in Sao Paulo state: analysis of its determinants. / A evolução dos preços da terra no Estado de São Paulo: análise de seus determinantes.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2003

RESUMO

This dissertation has the intention to determine the price of land (for both crop and pasture land), land rent (again for crop and pasture land), in Sao Paulo State, from 1969 to 2001. Besides that, it has the intention of showing that prices of different categories and of different States are related. According to the economic theory, land price should be the income present value calculated, considering a specific interest rate. However, literature has shown that in different moments in the Brazilian economy, especially in the 70ies, 80ies and early 90ies, there were other determinants of land price, apart from income and interest rate. Land price is also determined by others indirect variables, such as economic activity and inflation. The study has selected several variables (micro and macroeconomics) to determine its relevance in explaining crop and pasture land prices and rents. The econometrical tool used was multiple linear regression. Variables related to agriculture were: purchasing power, terms of trade, product and factor prices (index), and governmental loan subsidies. In order to represent macroeconomic variables, the work has chosen four different determinants: inflation rate, infrastructure (roads), interest rate and GDP gap. A dummy variable was taken to verify whether crop and pasture land prices have changed significantly over 1973 to 1994. Another objective considered was to verify crop and pasture land long run relation between Sao Paulo State and eight different States. The study also analyses long run relation among prices of four different land categories. To do so, it used unit root tests (proposed by Dickey and Fuller) and cointegration tests (according to Johansen´s methodology). Results have shown that land price and rent are more elastic to agricultural related variables (purchasing power, terms of trade, etc). Although it has been determined that variables affects land prices and rent, its effects are much lower than agricultural ones. The dummy variable has shown to be statistically significant in several models. Unit root and cointegration tests supported empirical evidences that different kind of land price have similar pattern of movement. Also, same kind if land have similar behavior among different states. These results are due to factors related to land demand for agriculture and land demand for speculative purposes. Results supported evidences raised by several researchers surveyed in this study.

ASSUNTO(S)

preço price agricultural policy sconometrics arrendamento política agrícola econometria land use. uso do solo (economia). land rent

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