LAGRANGE MULTIPLIERS IN THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS ELICITATION PROBLEM: AN APPLICATION TO THE 2013 FIFA CONFEDERATIONS CUP
AUTOR(ES)
Bezerra, Diogo de Carvalho, Rêgo, Leandro Chaves
FONTE
Pesqui. Oper.
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO
2015-12
RESUMO
ABSTRACT Contributions from the sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the linear programming model for the elicitation of experts' beliefs are presented. The process allows for the calibration of the family of probability distributions obtained in the elicitation process. An experiment to obtain the probability distribution of a future event (Brazil vs. Spain soccer game in the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup final game) was conducted. The proposed sensitivity analysis step may help to reduce the vagueness of the information given by the expert.
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