Influência do nível de investimento do setor público sobre o crescimento econômico e a produtividade total dos fatores

AUTOR(ES)

Tarcisio José Massote de Godoy

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

Many factors justify the importance of looking at the composition of the expenses of the government, but mainly the fact that the size of a State is a question of public choice and its composition is subject to policy dispute. This work was based on the seminal study by Aschauer (1989), which considers the relationship between the aggregate productivity and public investment and capital for the North American economy. An academic debate of methodolgical perfectionings of the work of Aschauer under the econometrical perspective is followed. From the model considered by Aschauer, but using the cointegration methodology proposed by Johansen (1988, 1990), this paper analyzed the long run relationship between the variable public investment, gross domestic product, total productivity of the factors and public capital. The result points that 1% of increase in the public investment will be able to increase between 0,24% and 0,29% the total productivity of the factors of the Brazilian economy, meeting the standards presented in diverse international studies. The present work also observed that the public investment (FBKFSP) Granger-cause the productivity (PTF) and vice versa. The exercises of esteem of the coefficient for FBKFSP in the relationship of balance in the long run with the GDP had revealed dubious. When we varied the specification, the results changed and assumed high values or inverted signals. Therefore, our studies fortify the thesis defended by Clarida (1993) and other authors by which probably the long run relationship between these variable would depend on situations and specific moments to have a balanced relationship. We also add exercises to test the relationship between the public capital (CFSP) and the dynamics of the product, and we find values in line with the values found by Ferreira and Maliagros (1998). The joined results point out an equal elasticity of 0,44 while the estimates of Ferreira and Malliagros (1998) for elasticity of long run of the income in relation to the public capital are placed between 0,55 and 0,61. It is also observed in this work that the public capital Granger-cause the GDP, but the the opposite does not happen. Thus, initiatives such as the Pilot Project of Investments - PPI of the Federal Government (substituted and complemented by the Growth Acceleration Program - the PAC) and the Private Public Partnership PPP are justified.

ASSUNTO(S)

cointegration crescimento econômico public capital projeto piloto de investimentos-ppi cointegração capital público produtividade total dos fatores investimento público total factor productivity public investment economic growth investment pilot project (ppi) public private partnership economia growth accelertation program parceiria público privada programa de aceleração do crescimento pac causalidade no sentido de granger granger causality

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