HIGH FREQUENCY DATA AND PRICE-MAKING PROCESS ANALYSIS: THE EXPONENTIAL MULTIVARIATE AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL MODEL - EMACM / ANÁLISE DE DADOS DE ALTA FREQÜÊNCIA E DO PROCESSO DE FORMAÇÃO DE PREÇOS: O MODELO MULTIVARIADO EXPONENCIAL - EMACM
AUTOR(ES)
GUSTAVO SANTOS RAPOSO
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO
2006
RESUMO
The availability of high frequency financial transaction data - price, spread, volume and duration -has contributed to the growing number of scientific articles on this topic. The first proposals were limited to pure duration models. Later, the impact of duration over instantaneous volatility was analyzed. More recently, Manganelli (2002) included volume into a vector model. In this document, we extended his work by including the bid-ask spread into the analysis through a vector autoregressive model. The conditional means of spread, volume and duration along with the volatility of returns evolve through transaction events based on an exponential formulation we called Exponential Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Model (EMACM). In our proposal, there are no constraints on the parameters of the VAR model. This facilitates the maximum likelihood estimation of the model and allows the use of simple likelihood ratio hypothesis tests to specify the model and obtain some clues about the interdependency structure of the variables. In parallel, the problem of stock price forecasting is faced through an integrated approach in which, besides the modeling of high frequency financial data, a contemporary ordered probit model is used. Here, EMACM captures the dynamic that high frequency variables present, and its forecasting function is taken as a proxy to the contemporaneous information necessary to the pricing model.
ASSUNTO(S)
modelo condicional multivariado garch garch modelo ordered probit conditional multivariate models series temporais nao-lineares ordered probit model nonlinear time series
ACESSO AO ARTIGO
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