Fundos soberanos de riqueza de recursos naturais e volatilidade cambial.

AUTOR(ES)

Jamilly Dias dos Santos

FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

22/12/2011

RESUMO

The goal of this paper is to empirically verify what the impact of the Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) on the economic stability is. The natural resource SWFs have been a mechanism deployed by economies rich in natural resources to manage the incomes that come from the exploitation of such resources, aiming at objectives that range from savings for future generations, increase in the rate of return of international reserves, and support of socioeconomic projects mainly infrastructure projects to economic stabilization. The effects of SWFs on macroeconomic variables can be both stabilizing and destabilizing. Thus, this paper analyzes whether or not SWFs can enhance the role of international reserves on exchange rate volatility. To do so, the stated objectives of sovereign wealth funds, the history of the establishment of such funds in their respective countries, the available kinds of funds and their classification were analyzed. The theoretical foundation of the research problem is based on the theories of Sudden Stops and of Precautionary Motive. According to Precautionary Motive theory, the demand for assets abroad takes into account the fact that the ownership of foreign assets changes the likelihood and the magnitude of the sudden stop of capital inflows. In this context, the paper presents the stabilizing and destabilizing effects of the natural resource funds on the economy of their countries. A dynamic panel model, estimated through Arellano and Bover (1995) methods, has been used to test the effects of SWFs on the exchange rate stability. The main result is that SWFs have a stabilizing effect on the economies that have exploitation of natural resources within their borders.

ASSUNTO(S)

fundo soberano de riqueza volatilidade cambial sudden stops motivo precaução estabilização sovereign wealth fund exchange rate volatility sudden stops precautionary motive stabilization economia regional

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