FORECAST LOAD MODEL USING NEURAL NETWORK: LAYER BY LAYER IMPROVEMENT / MODELO DE PREVISÃO DE CARGA UTILIZANDO REDES NEURAIS: OTIMIZAÇÃO CAMADA A CAMADA

AUTOR(ES)

JOSE LEONARDO RIBEIRO MACRINI

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2000

RESUMO

It is developed in this essay a short forecast electric energy model (monthly forecast) to the electric system in Brazil, particularly to interconnected systems utilities, through a neural network model, which employs a layer by layer improvement algorithm. The aim of this proposition consists in demonstrating that good forecast results can be reached with the use this algorithm to electric energy series and that this method could be part of the forecast methods, wich compose the Load Forecasting System (PREVCAR) of National System model (backpropagation) and Fuzzy logic model.

ASSUNTO(S)

redes neurais forecasting neural networks previsao

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