Fluxo de caixa e classificação dos ratings: um estudo no mercado brasileiro / Cash Flow and Ratings Classification: A Study at the Brazilian Market

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

The rating agencies describe rating as an opinion about the relative risk founded on the issuer?s capacity of payment of its financial obligation plus an interest rate at a stated period, in comparison with other issuers. In such case, the risk of the issuer pay its debt is as much important to the investors, to guarantee that the right amount will be paid at the agreed time, as to the issuers itself, to assure that they will accomplish their debt obligation and will be able to trade it on a secondary market. The relation between rating and financial variables has been studied on literature such as the important analysis made by Jay &Shank (1997), which connects rating with American manufacturing companies? cash flows through the average between five cash flows from different groups of rating. Nevertheless, the results of this analyze can?t prove a clear difference among the cash flow?s averages in the different groups of rating. In this manner, showed up an opportunity, which is the purpose of this thesis, of replying Jay &Shank (1997) studies onto Brazilian manufacturing companies evaluated by rating agencies in 2006. This thesis aimed at studying the relation between the cash flows and the companies? rating, which means verify if there is an expressive difference among the averages of the nine standard measurements of cash flows (five presented by Jay &Shank (1997) and four more suggested by this thesis) for each distinct group of ratings. The averages, the pattern deviations and the index of the pattern deviations divided by the averages, were calculated in order to verify descriptively the behavior of those companies classified onto different rating groups along the time, comparing them between themselves. So analyzing the averages along the time, it was possible to notice that the cash flow which was more significant showing the relation between the rating groups clearly, was the cash flow number six (operating income plus depreciation), which presented the relation between all the rating groups over the years. Besides the descriptive analysis, a statistic analysis was made. In this manner, it was possible to put into practice the non-parametrical Mann-Whitney U test, once only the High Grade and Medium Grade groups could be statistically compared. The results indicated that none of cash flows, all over the years, at 5% level of significance, rejects the null hypothesis which states that both groups are equal. However, the cash flow number one (net income from operating plus depreciation and deferred taxes) and seven (operating income plus depreciation and change in current assets and liabilities) are the most efficient in rejecting the null hypothesis, as they presented statistical significance in four of the six years considered in each one.

ASSUNTO(S)

ratings cash flow classificação de ratings fluxo de caixa

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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