Estimativa dos recursos eolicos no litoral cearense usando a teoria da regressão linear. / Estimation of wind resources in Ceará using the theory of linear regression.

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

18/12/2009

RESUMO

The current study is the estimate of wind resources in coast of Ceará using the theory of the linear regression. Its main objective is to estimate values of average wind speed at altitude from the data observed at the surface. Two areas are investigated: Paracuru and Camocim both located in the State of Ceará. For each region will be adopted the same procedure. Initially characterized the region from the profile daily and monthly mean wind speed obtained from the raw data of its Platform for Data Collection and anemometric tower in the region. The data on the prevailing wind direction are also used. Using the equation of the logarithmic wind profile estimate the values of average wind speed at altitude for 20, 40 and 60 meters from the data observed at the surface to 10 meters, calculating then the coefficients correlation between these data estimated altitude and the observed TA in the region. Then, we use the linear regression model to estimate new values in altitude. Initially this procedure is done for a period of model calibration for a period of validation. In both periods the linear regression model showed a good performance either by high level of agreement between the data series and the estimated number of observed data and their correlation coefficients, whether the low values of the errors between the series. In some situations, the region of Paracuru, founded values of correlation coefficients of about 0.99, which determination coefficients explains 98% of the variation of the observed data. In Paracuru, founded values of error in the order of 0.02%. The results of this study, besides confirming that Paracuru and Camocim are regions potentially favorable for wind energy, have shown that it is possible, with reference to the data of average wind speed in the PCDs FUNCEME estimate values of average wind speed altitude in regions where there are no anemometric towers.

ASSUNTO(S)

energia eólica. litoral cearense. regressão linear. estimativa de ventos fisica wind power. coastal ceará. linear regression. estimate winds

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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