Estimation of underreporting of live births by the capture-recapture / Estimação de sub-registro de nascidos vivos pelo método de captura e recaptura

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

Introduction Capture-recapture method has been used in Epidemiology since the middle of twentieth century and from the 1990s on, huge number of publications about applying and developing the method on this area have been noted. Underreporting of vital events is still a drawback for the direct calculation of health indicators like fertility and infant mortality, forcing indirect calculation with demographic methods, wich procedures do not allow estimation in geographic levels smaller than States, in intercensuses periods. Objective To estimate underreporting of live births, using the capture-recapture method for closed populations. Methods The National Live Birth Information System (SINASC) and the Civil Registry databases, in the second and third trimesters of 2006 of the State of Sergipe, Brazil, were linked through deterministic linkage using the Live Birth Declaration number as the connection key. Mothers micro-regions and health regions of residence were adopted as geographical subdivisions. Huggins closed capture models were used to estimate the capture probabilities for each database as well as the derived estimation of the total of live births in the selected time interval, at each of geographical subdivisions. MARK® Software was used to get all estimations. Results The capture-recapture method is feasible for estimation of live birth underreporting, even for geographical subdivisions smaller than States. Deterministic linkage was damaged due to lack of filling of the Live Declaration number in some of the Civil Registry databases registries, mainly at four mother residences micro-regions and at one health region. Program MARK® shows friendly interface, which favoured models building and selection, and allowed to point out mother ages influence in Civil Registry database capture probability, characterisc heterogeneity of live born population. Conclusions Deterministic linkage of these two official databases makes possible local actions, because it allows do identify where and how many lives are neglected legal registrations duty, due to underreporting and to late reporting. Capture-recapture method appears as an accessible and cheap alternative for live birth underreporting estimation

ASSUNTO(S)

health statistics underregistration sub-registro capture-recapture estatísticas de saúde captura-recaptura

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