El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts on grape yields in Santana do Livramento, Brazil: understanding and early warning of crop failure conditions
AUTOR(ES)
Kaltbach, Pedro; Kaltbach, Suélen Braga de Andrade; Domingues, Fabrício; Farias, Paulo Celso de Mello; Herter, Flávio Gilberto; Costa, Vagner Brasil
FONTE
Revista Ceres
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO
2023
RESUMO
ABSTRACT El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important source of year–to–year fluctuations in the whole global climate system and in the southern Brazilian climate. El Niño events affect this region, imposing unfavorable weather conditions (rainy/humid/overcast) during critical grapevine phenological stages, compromising yields in the current and following crop seasons. The analysis of 29 crop cycles revealed patterns about grape yield oscillations in Santana do Livramento, Campanha Gaúcha, RS, Brazil. Yield deviations showed correlations with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) 3 months running means centered in November. La Niña events correlate with yield oscillations close to or above the tendency line. El Niño events are linked to various results, including the lowest and the highest yields. The four largest crop failures happened in El Niño events, while the three most severe of them happened in cases of early El Niño consolidation. The seven lowest yields were linked to El Niño, or low or descending yields in the previous year (s), or all these factors combined. Simple criteria allowing early warning of crop failure conditions were defined: ONI (or the monthly Niño - 3.4 Index) ≥ +0.5 °C in July (or earlier); and low or descending yields in the previous year (s).
Documentos Relacionados
- Mid- to late-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation dynamics reflected in the subtropical terrestrial realm
- Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Niño–Southern Oscillation records
- Scheduling optimum planting window for gladiola based on El Niño Southern Oscillation
- Northern northeast Brazil precipitation and sea surface temperature and sea level pressure patterns: relations to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation phases
- Precipitação do norte do nordeste brasileiro e padrões de temperatura da superfície do mar e pressão ao nível do mar: relações com as fases do El Niño/Oscilação Sul e da Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico