Determinants of the Brazilian agribusiness trade balance: 1970-2002 / Determinantes da balança comercial do complexo agroindustrial brasileiro : 1970-2002

AUTOR(ES)

Orlando Gonçalves Júnior

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2005

RESUMO

The goal of this dissertation is to examine the role of selected economic variables (real effective exchange rate, domestic income, foreing income, terms of trade and total factor prodictivity) on the Brazilian agribusiness trade balance from 1970 to 2002. The analysis is based on a theoretical model, named IS-TB, which sustained the specification of econometric models. The econometric tool employed was a multiple linear regression. The models were adjusted by ordinary least squares (OLS). Signs and magnitudes of the estimated elasticities were according to ours expectations, based on the economic relations of the proposed model. The foreign income showed to have the greatest relative influence (from a stastistical point of view) on the Brazilian agribusiness trade balance. On the other hand, domestic income and total factor productivity were not statistically significant. Overall, the results support the relevance of agribusiness sector on adjusting total trade balance of the country.

ASSUNTO(S)

agribusiness balança comercial trade balance income complexo agroindustrial exchange rate câmbio factor productivity economias agrária e dos recurso naturais economia renda produtividade dos fatores

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