Deslizamentos de terra no município de Nova Friburgo: histórico e interpretação estatística de dados / Landslides in municipal area of Nova Friburgo: historical and data statistical interpretation

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

A statistical model based on the concept risk = probability x consequence and on the principle of maximum entropy is presented in this Dissertation, aiming to establish realistic predictions of loss of life in the Municipal area of Nova Friburgo State of Rio de Janeiro, to help the local public authorities to minimize the consequences of flooding and landslide. The results show that the principle of maximum entropy models very well the distribution of mortality in landslide disasters. Comparisons of landslide mortality in Nova Friburgo, Petrópolis, and Metropolitan Area of Recife and in the City of Rio de Janeiro are presented in this Dissertation. The results shown indicate that the risk of loss life in Nova Friburgo is about one third of the risk in Petrópolis and about one forth of risk in the Rio de Janeiro City. A statistical study of the recorded landslides in the Highway RJ-116, in the mountain area between Nova Friburgo and Cachoeiras de Macacu cities, shows also a good adjustment of the historical data with the principle of maximum entropy in spite of the short period of observation, only 21 months. Predictions based on the principle of maximum entropy indicate that the Municipal Civil Defense should be prepared to face a landslide disaster with as much as 27 fatal cases in case of a exceptionally high rainfall.

ASSUNTO(S)

princípio da máxima entropia deslizamentos de terra landslides mortalidade por deslizamentos de terra principle of maximum entropy landslide mortality matematica aplicada distribution of extremes distribuição de extremos

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