Decision support bioeconomic model for livestock systems / Modelo bioeconômico para suporte à decisão em sistemas pecuários

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2012

RESUMO

Rural managers make decisions in uncertain and dynamic environments. These characteristics, associated with bounded rationality can lead to the formulation of mental models that reflect reality in a distorted way. In this context, the procedures for modeling and simulation are important tools to understand how the production systems operate and to make decisions in different scenarios. Thus, in this research, we propose a macro model with a systemic approach of the farm environment as a tool for decision making support, capable of representing the complexity of a livestock production unit, in order to overcome the difficulties in understanding and managing the system, as well as to assist the producers in their learning process. To better understand the general model and its facets, this thesis is structured based on three pillars: (i) conceptual modeling; (ii) mathematical modeling; and (iii) simulation. In conceptual modeling, several submodels, also called input models, were incorporated and adapted from existing studies, including: meteorological, pasture, animal, crop, soil, and the interfaces pasture-animal and pasture-soil. These submodels combined originate and shape the structure of the production unit. Among the main outputs of the proposed model, we highlight the economic results, based on agricultural productivity. The refinement of the conceptual model was based on the Delphi method, which allowed the collection of data and peculiarities of the object of study and guided its development. Subsequently, for the integration of these submodels, we used mathematical modeling based on differential and integral equations. Finally, for the development of computer simulation, mathematical equations were incorporated into iThink 9.1.4 software, which uses the system dynamics methodology to build representative models of reality, allowing the construction of different scenarios of livestock production. The validation of the bioeconomic model occurred specifically in the conceptual and mathematical modeling; however, the final validation of simulation will be the goal of future studies, aiming to identify the main gaps and weaknesses that should be rethought and developed, as well as the variables to be optimized both from the theoretical and practical perspectives.

ASSUNTO(S)

administração rural economia rural modelagem dinamica gado de corte

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