Análise de investimento em cana-de-açúcar irrigada no noroeste mineiro / Economic analysis of irrigated sugar cane in Minas Gerais’ northwest

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

The increasing demand of sugar and alcohol, the sugar cane main products, both in domestic and international market, is causing the expansion of sugar cane fields all over the country. Due to the lack of available land in São Paulo, the most important sugar cane producer, other states, like Minas Gerais, are amplifying sugar cane fields. The northwest of this state is a prominent agricultural region, and large quantities of money are being invested in sugar cane industry. The raw material for this industry is being produced in fields under center pivots irrigation. In spite of what is happening, previous applications suggest that growing irrigated sugar cane is not profitable. Thus, this work aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of sugar cane irrigated cultivation and, besides that, to compare its results to another irrigated growing – like corn, bean and soybean. To reach the objectives of this research, cash flows representative of all productive systems were elaborated, main feasibility indicators were calculated and risk analysis was performed. The indicators calculated were: a) Net Present Value (NPV), b) Internal Rate of Return (IRR), c) Discounted Payback and d) Benefit-Cost Ratio. Risk analysis was performed by the Monte Carlo simulation model. The results indicated that irrigated sugar cane growing is feasible. Risk analysis showed that the price of sugar cane and the harvest cost were the variables that most affected the indicators selected (NPV and Benefit-Cost Ratio), an indication that these variables are the most relevant in the project. Additionally, the risk analysis indicated that the investment in irrigated sugar cane has between 20 e 25% of loss probability. Comparatively to another growing, sugar cane is more profitable than corn and soybean combinations. However, combinations between bean and corn or between bean, corn and soybean are gainful. Through the risk analysis, is was noted that, in spite of smaller returns, growing corn seed and soybean presented smaller risks, since the variation coefficient (VC) were smaller. The higher VC was obtained in bean combinations, because of its larger price variation. When the accumulated distribution of probability was analyzed, its results showed the opposite: combination between bean and other growing has smaller chances of failure. Thus, it was concluded that irrigated sugar cane is feasible, and allow producers better return than soybean and corn combination, but less return than bean combinations.

ASSUNTO(S)

irr npv cana-de-açúcar tir vpl ciencias sociais aplicadas avaliação econômica sugar cane economic avaluation

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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