Adjustments in the ethanol and gasoline markets in the deregulation process. / Ajustes nos mercados de álcool e gasolina no processo de desregulamentação.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2002

RESUMO

The economic opening of the sugar-ethanol market was started with the extinction of the "Instituto do Açúcar e do Álcool" ( Sugar–Ethanol Institute ) in 1990, which controlled its activities since 1933. The deregulation of gasoline C prices to the consumer took place in 1996, generating the deregulation process in the sector as a whole. The general aim of this study was to analyze and characterize the fuel market, relating the change effects in associated variables to the supply and demand about the agents behavior in a market partly deregulated, that is, between 1995 and 2000. The specific aims were to estimate two models: Price Adjustment and Quantity Adjustment Models. The first was made up of eight equations, being four of quantities and four of fuel prices – retail and wholesale gasoline C prices, anhydrous ethanol to producer and gasoline A at refineries. The second model was made up of five equations, being one of gasoline C to retailing and four of fuel prices. The estimating methods for the first model were Minimum Squares in Two Stages, whereas Ordinaries Minimum Squares were used for the second one. The distinction between the two models was made necessary due to the fact that the market price system was not efficient yet, because of the transitional condition during the time of the research was done. Through the first model it was checked the degree the market forces already operated between 1995 and 2000. Through the second one, it was attempted to show the dynamic of adjustments in a market, which the amounts offered were pre-determined and the prices adjusted themselves based on commercialization conditions to the sugar-ethanol and fuel sectors, previously established by the government. Based on the estimates from the second model, it was figured the Impact Multipliers of Theil, allowing to evaluate the effects over quantities and prices of shock fuels in exogenous variables of the model. Results of the first model allow to conclude: (a) that adjustments via prices were little efficient to influence changes in fuel amounts and; (b) the existence of a certain inertness of prices movements, typical of price control systems like the ones being practiced in the 1990 s. Through the results of model two, the main conclusions were: (a) the demand variations tended to be met without major changes in the price of gasoline and its compounds; (b) the wholesale gasoline C and gasoline A at refineries prices adjustments, even moderated, were reposed partly to retailing; (c) the government had a tendency to absorve the external price shocks and did not repose immediately to retailing and the retailing did not repose, at the same extent, to the final consumer. Therefore, the research results reflected sectors still operating under State domain, which controlled their operations without necessarily meeting the economic logic. As the adjustments in the sugar-ethanol and fuel sectors start to be dictated by market prices and demand-supply changes, they will start to reflect on prices of the various links of this sector, possibly in the form of the Price Adjustment Model, discussed in this study.

ASSUNTO(S)

álcool como combustível comércio agrícola gasoline mercado agrícola gasolina agribusiness preços agrícolas agricultural market agricultural prices ethanol fuel

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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