A Methodology to forecast air transportation demand with alternative econometric models

AUTOR(ES)

Diego Javier Gonzales Vega

FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

30/05/2012

RESUMO

This thesis presents a methodology using a portfolio of time-series models, from conventional ARMA to a regime-changing framework. The objective is to develop an air transportation demand modeling to inspect potential structural breaks in the Brazilian market, due to solve underlying issues of new demand creation. Out-of-sample forecasting is used to generate comparative metrics aiming at both selection and validation of what we call a "champion model". Results indicate better performance of more complex models such as the fractionally integrated and the Markov-switching models. Ex ante knowledge of the interaction of structural breaks and unit root can prove useful in the modeling analysis. The demand forecast of the champion model is in line with the recent accelerated growth of the Brazilian air transportation market, roughly 7% per year.

ASSUNTO(S)

transporte de passageiros demanda (economia) previsão metodologia análise de séries temporais transporte aéreo brasil transportes

Documentos Relacionados

• Use of Econometric Models to Estimate Expenditure Shares
• A systematic approach to construct credit risk forecast models
• Gene and alternative splicing annotation with AIR
• Effects of spatial dependency on transportation demand models
• Inventory models comparative study in a variable demand forecast error environment.