A criminalidade na Região Metropolitana de Salvador e sua relação intertemporal com o desemprego.

AUTOR(ES)

Luiz Fernando Araújo Lobo

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

The present work has two big parts: the first one, focused on investigating the advance of the crime in the Metropolitan Region of Salvador (RMS); and, the second part just tries to analyze, still in the RMS, the relation between crime and unemployment. Before, however, it was made a synthesis of the main alternative readings determinatives of the criminal behavior and the progress of the crime and an analysis of the works of authors who had dedicated special attention to the links between crime and unemployment. After this, the work analyzed the behavior and profile of some types of crime in the RMS of 1993 to 2002. In this analysis, the RMS was split in two groups: big cities and small cities. In general terms, crime in this period grew more in the big cities that in the small cities. After that, this work used the modeling of Auto-regressive Vectors and its resources Granger causality tests, impulse response function and variance decomposition to investigate the relation between crime and unemployment in the RMS. With this powerful tool it was possible to evaluate the aspects of the relation between crime and unemployment, the trajectories of these variables and the power of the effect of the first one, on the second one. In this stage this work searched to unmask particularities in the relation between crime and unemployment, taking into consideration, the type of the crime and the size of the cities. This work used monthly data of unemployment and offences of theft and robbery, theft and robbery of vehicles, other larcenies and, also, total of crimes. The period of reference was January of 1999 to December of 2002. The econometrical results had indicated the existence of a dynamic effect where unemployment Granger cause each one of the offences analyzed in the group of the big cities, while in the case of the small cities, evidence of that had not been found. The results of the analysis of the impulse-response function showed that one-standard-deviation shock in the unemployment rate induces differentiated behaviors in the variables of crime that depend on the type of analyzed offence and the size of the city. With the variance decomposition, also, it was possible to evidence that the relation between crime and unemployment presents proper characteristics as type of the offence and size of the city. Specifically, the criminality seems to be more influenced with the unemployment in the group of the big cities that in the group of the small cities.

ASSUNTO(S)

criminality desemprego unemployment criminalidade desemprego auto-regressive vectors rms (bahia) economia do trabalho economia

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