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Constructing Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity for the Brazilian Economy

Autor Principal: Issler, João Victor
Outros Autores: Notini, Hilton Hostalacio, Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura
Tipo: Technical Report
Idioma: en_US
Publicado em: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV 20120315
Assuntos:
Link Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9416
Saved in:
This paper has three original contributions.

The fi rst is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity.

The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy.

The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11.

The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.